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HotTopics: Deadline With Destiny: Newspaper Industry Faces $20 Billion Gap

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Author: Ken Doctor, Affiliate Analyst

In this HotTopics, Outsell predicts that the newspaper industry faces a $20 billion revenue shortfall over the next five years due to print circulation decline, pressures on print advertising and pricing, and rapid growth of lower-revenue-producing online news media. Outsell believes the industry has less than five years to remake its future.

In this HotTopics you will:
- Get five-year financial forecasts for the newspaper industry based on three scenarios: Blue Sky, Steady Course, and Hit the Wall
- Obtain detailed forecasts for daily and Sunday circulation; national, retail, classified, and online advertising revenue; and newsroom employment and newsprint consumption expenses
- Understand the major market drivers affecting paid newspaper circulation, advertising revenues, and expenses
- Get Outsell's list of essential actions for the newspaper industry, such as re-evaluating margins and diversifying revenue streams

In researching this HotTopics, Outsell analyzed previous primary research including our in-depth study of 2,810 news readers and detailed interviews with key executives in the online news trade. Outsell also used data from organizations such as the Newspaper Association of America and Editor & Publisher magazine, as well as company annual reports and SEC 10-K filings.

Pub Date: August 6, 2006
Pages: 47
Format:

Table of Contents

  • Why This Topic?
  • Methodology
  • Analysis of Circulation, Revenue, and Expense Reveals a $20 Billion Gap
  • Total News Industry Revenues: Bottom Falling Out of the Top Line
  • Circulation: Thinning of the Masses Means Trouble
    • A Century of Circulation: Taking a Long View
    • Paid Circulation: The Slide Is Accelerating
    • Sunday Circulation Is Taking a Greater Hit
    • Circulation Revenue: A Double Loss
    • Circulation Drivers
  • Advertising: Adding to Bottom-line Angst - No Map from Print to Online
    • Print Ad Revenues: Big Businesses Fraying at the Edges
    • Online Advertising: Great Growth Offers Good Hope
    • Totaling All Ad Revenues Advertising Drivers
  • Expenses: The Costs of a Legacy Business
    • Tracking Industry Expense
  • The Gap: Margin Reduction Seems Inevitable and Deep
    • The Impact of Margin Reduction
  • Confronting the Nightmare
    • This Is Not Your Father's Roller Coaster
  • Outsell's List of Essential Actions
  • Companies Mentioned in this HotTopics
    • Brightcove
    • CareerBuilder.com
    • Clarity Media
    • DotConnect Media
    • Dow Jones
    • eBay
    • E.W. Scripps
    • Gannett
    • Google
    • Hearst
    • Knight Ridder
    • Lee Enterprises
    • Metro International
    • Monster
    • MSN
    • New York Times
    • Planet Discover
    • PointRoll
    • Shopzilla
    • Tribune
    • Washington Post
    • Yahoo!